Analyzing the Effect of Risk and Uncertainty on Optimal Tillage and Nitrogen Fertilizer Intensity: Recommendations for Sustainable Crop Production
Dr. Markus Gandorfer
The aim of the study is to carry out a detailed risk analysis of long term field experiments for various field crops where different tillage and nitrogen management systems, including analysis of their interactions. This is important since both nitrogen and tillage management have a high impact on the economic and environmental performance of cropping systems. Furthermore, they play an important role in the current discussion on mitigation of and adaption to climate change. On one hand, the results will show risk reducing management practices which can be especially important as an adaption to increased production risk. On the other hand, the effect of farmers’ risk aversion on the optimal decision also can be studied. One of the key questions is, what is the extra value to farmers when they get recommendations for nitrogen application and tillage systems from models which represent risk aversion. Additionally, there will be a significant contribution to reduce negative environmental impacts if these recommendations result in lower input levels, which in turn result in a more sustainable practice. The research will also contribute to the understanding of policy tools that will help to reduce farmers’ usage of polluting inputs.